This $5M HVAC Pays $236,315/Year After Debt
The math does not work at this price. Here is where the numbers fall apart.
This is a hvac business listed at $5M, generating $3.4M in annual revenue and $1M in seller's discretionary earnings. At a 5.00x cash flow multiple, the asking price is above the 3.00x Bulletproof threshold and above the 3.10x benchmark for hvac businesses. The profit margin is 30%, well above the 15% benchmark for hvac businesses, about 2.0x the category figure.
We ran this deal through the DealScore Pro Bulletproof Calculator to see how it holds up across all five scoring criteria. Here is the full breakdown.
Deal Snapshot
The deal snapshot tells a concerning story. Revenue of $3.4M produces a 30% margin, well above the 15% benchmark for hvac businesses, about 2.0x the category figure. The 5.00x multiple is above the 3.00x Bulletproof threshold and above the 3.10x benchmark for hvac businesses.
Financing Overview
Using the standard 80/10/10 SBA deal structure (80% SBA 7(a) loan, 10% seller financing, 10% buyer down payment), here is what this acquisition looks like when financed.
Why the Numbers Matter
The headline number most buyers fixate on is the asking price. But the asking price alone tells you almost nothing about whether a deal is worth doing. What matters is what happens after you finance it.
The post-debt cash flow of $236,315 per year clears the $100K Bulletproof minimum, and that figure assumes revenue holds. On a $3.4M revenue base, it does not take much of a decline to move it. That is what the stress test below measures, and it is where this deal separates from the ones that clear. This figure is also calculated before any cost of replacing the owner’s own role in the business.
The DSCR of 1.31x means the business generates $1.31 for every $1 of annual debt payment. SBA lenders require a minimum of 1.25x. The Bulletproof standard requires 2.0x. This deal clears the bank minimum but falls short of the Bulletproof target, leaving you with a thinner safety margin.
The stress test is where many deals that look good on paper fall apart. We model a 20% drop in revenue and check whether the business can still cover all debt obligations. This deal fails. A 20% revenue decline would leave the business unable to cover its debt payments, which is a serious risk in a financed acquisition.
Industry Context
📈 How This Deal Compares to the HVAC Industry
HVAC carries an SBA default rate of 3.6%, below the 5.1% all-industry average.
Demand is non-discretionary, the service radius is local, and licensing keeps the competitive field narrow. The variable is work mix. A book weighted toward service contracts carries materially better margins and more predictable revenue than one weighted toward new construction.
The financial metrics on this deal raise concerns that would give most lenders pause.
Strengths and Risks
✓ What Works
- Owner cash flow of $236k after every loan payment is made.
⚠ Watch Out For
- Coverage of 1.31 is above the bank floor but below where I want it. One slow quarter and the loan payment starts competing with payroll.
- At 5.00x the price is above the 3.56x top of the normal band. That is roughly $1.44M of extra purchase price financed over ten years, so it costs real money every month, not just at closing.
- Every figure here comes from the listing and none of it is verified. A listing is marketing, and it is written by someone paid on the sale.
Who This Deal Is For
Best fit for:
Buyers who intend to renegotiate. At the current price and structure, the numbers do not support the ask.
This one did not clear. Here is what does.
Most listings fail on the same few numbers. Starter members get the deals that pass, every week, with the source listing attached.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is $5M a fair price for a hvac business?
At 5.00x seller's discretionary earnings, this asking price is above the 3.00x Bulletproof threshold and above the 3.10x benchmark for hvac businesses. The Bulletproof threshold and the category benchmark are two different yardsticks, and this deal sits outside the stricter of the two.
What is a good profit margin for a hvac business?
The benchmark profit margin for hvac businesses is approximately 15%. This listing operates at a 30% margin, which is well above the 15% benchmark for hvac businesses, about 2.0x the category figure. That is a comparison against category medians, not a verdict on this listing.
Can I buy a hvac business with an SBA loan?
Yes. HVAC businesses are commonly financed through SBA 7(a) loans using an 80/10/10 structure: 80% SBA loan, 10% seller financing, and 10% buyer down payment. For this $5M deal the down payment is $500,000, but cash required at closing is $650,000 once closing costs and a working capital reserve of $435,500 are counted. SBA lenders require a minimum DSCR of 1.25x, but conservative buyers target 2.0x or higher. This deal's 1.31x DSCR clears the bank minimum but falls short of the conservative target.
How much do hvac business owners actually make?
Owner earnings vary widely based on revenue, pricing, and operational involvement. This hvac business generates $1M in seller's discretionary earnings (SDE) before debt service. After SBA financing under the 80/10/10 structure, the buyer would take home approximately $236,315 per year. That post-debt figure is the number that actually matters for a financed acquisition, because it reflects what ends up in your pocket after every loan payment is made.